S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 6/11/26 

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7960 SUP 7663

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7530/20

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7858 SUP 7521

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7300/7280

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7294/7197  RES 7489/7586

GAMMA FLIP 7354

DELTA FLIP 7557

CALL WALLS 7411

PUT WALLS 7300

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7712

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7794

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - TBC

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.72  

VVIX-to-VIX < 5 (Current ~4.79). A ratio below 3.5 can sometimes act as a contrarian bullish signal after a washout, while values near 4.8 indicate balanced pricing relative to the current VIX level

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DBBZ TARGET RTH CLOSE

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.26 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Upside cap (~7,920–7,950): Dealer gamma hedging at this call strike creates resistance, with market makers likely selling futures into strength and limiting volatility. Downside cushion (~7,270): If SPX drops 5% into Q4, long put gamma may force dealers to buy futures as the index falls, helping stabilize prices. Expiration: December 31, 2026. Strong pinning effects are likely near key strikes into year-end expiration.

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

EQUITY & VOLATILITY DESK BRIEFING: HISTORIC LIQUIDATION, AI DE-RISKING & RECORD VOL SPIKE

THE TAKE: VIOLENT RETEST, RECORD VOLATILITY EXPLOSION & COMPLETE ABSENCE OF TECH DEFENSE

A single session after the post-election relief rally, US equities suffered a historic, unhedged liquidation event across growth, cyclicals, and index benchmarks. The Nasdaq-100 plunged -6.36% to 26,629—its worst single-day decline since the March 9, 2020 peak-COVID shock (-6.83%). The S&P 500 tumbled -4.36% to 7,353, marking its steepest daily drawdown since April 4, 2025 (-5.97% tariff shock).


The primary catalyst was an aggressive fundamental re-calibration of post-election data center deployment trajectories, execution risks, and power/grid availability. This triggered an outright collapse across data center engineering and construction (E&C), Independent Power Producers (IPPs), neoclouds, and semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) crashed -12.0% in its worst session since 2020, pushing valuation multiples down ~50% from their June/July peaks.


Unlike Wednesday's bifurcated action—where mega-cap hyperscalers absorbed semiconductor outflows—no offsetting bid appeared for hyperscalers or defensive tech. Instead, macro liquidation took over, with ETF volume surging to 32% of total exchange volume (26.83B total shares traded) and institutional phones lighting up with inbounds (10/10 inquiry volume) against thin high-touch risk-taking (5/10 execution activity).


BENCHMARK PERFORMANCE & CROSS-ASSET DASHBOARD

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,353.00 (-4.36%) | MOC $1.8B to BUY | VIX exploded +67.19% to 27.77 | Next-day implied straddle: 1.43%

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 26,629.00 (-6.36%) | Worst session since March 9, 2020 COVID drawdown

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,729.00 (-4.46%) | Broad small-cap liquidation despite lower yields

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,523.00 (-3.44%) | Industrial/value ballast gave way under macro pressure

  • US 10-Year Treasury: Yield down -5 bps to 4.83% | Flight-to-safety duration bid; curve flattening

  • WTI Crude: Price up +2.80% to $90.58/bbl | Bounced modestly off the sub-$89/bbl overnight low

  • Gold: Price up +0.57% to $4,084.00/oz | Steady safe-haven accumulation

  • Bitcoin: Price down -5.47% to $75,870.00 | Liquidated alongside high-beta tech/crypto risk

  • US Dollar Index (DXY): Up +1 bp to 101.58 | Static as rates declined

FACTOR DAMAGE, CTA BREACHES & FLOW METRICS

  • Factor & Theme Drawdown Records:


    • High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO): Fell -6.2% on the session, extending its drawdown to -51% from June highs—the factor's worst multi-month peak-to-trough collapse in more than a decade.

    • AI Pure Baskets: Multiple Goldman Sachs AI thematic baskets suffered their largest single-day drops since the public launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.

  • Systematic CTA Threshold Breach:


    • Index futures closed well below the medium-term CTA systematic threshold (7,549), invalidating Wednesday's recovery and activating algorithmic trend supply.

    • Projected systematic S&P 500 selling under morning -2.5 SD estimates is modeled at -$7.48B over the next 1-week window.

  • Floor Flow Dynamics:


    • Asset Managers (LOs): Finished as heavy net sellers, continuously offloading semiconductors and AI supply without rotating into defensive megacap tech.

    • Hedge Funds (HFs): Finished roughly balanced in net notional by aggressively toggling short books and shorting macro index products against long positions.

DERIVATIVES SURFACE COLOR: 9.3 VOL PANIC INDEX & SKEW SPIKE

  • Historic Vol of Vol Spike: The VVIX surged nearly +45 points—the second largest 1-day increase in market history, trailing only February 2018's "Volmageddon."

  • GS Vol Panic Index (9.3 / 10): Intraday readings on the proprietary Vol Panic Index (blending 1-month S&P implied volatility, VIX volatility, 1-month S&P skew, and term structure slope) printed at 9.3 out of 10.

  • Option Curve Inversion & Skew Steepening:


    • NDX and SPX fixed-strike volatilities were bid aggressively across the board, with intense panic demand concentrated in front-month tenors.

    • Put skew steepened dramatically as participants paid top-of-cycle premia for immediate downside index hedges.

  • Flows & Hedge Restructuring:


    • Institutional desks observed massive monetization of in-the-money VIX calls as the index surpassed 26–27.

    • Fresh institutional downside structures were initiated lower on the surface, including a client purchase of 22,000 contracts of the SPY 27Nov 700/730 Put Spread.

  • Implied Event Pricing Ahead of NFP:


    • The implied move for Friday's session (incorporating the October US Employment Situation) expanded to 1.43% (a sharp jump from the 91 bps full-week straddle priced at Wednesday's settle).